The world is heading into another period of dangerous heat, a new UN report warns on Thursday, and its nearly certain global temperatures over the next five years will stay at or near record levels as climate change accelerates across land and sea.
Extreme heat is pushing global food and farming systems to the brink, threatening the livelihoods of over a billion people as rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves redefine how food is produced worldwide, a new UN report warns.
From Sri Lankas central highlands to Indonesias flood-swollen river basins, a wave of climate-fuelled cyclones and monsoon rains has unleashed one of the deadliest weather patterns south and southeast Asia has seen in years, killing more than 1,600 people, displacing hundreds of thousands and affecting millions.
Areportproduced by the UK Met Office and released on Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there isan 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.
It also foundthere is a 91 per cent likelihood that average global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsiusabove pre-industrial levels during at least one of the next five years.
The 1.5C mark is a key benchmark under theParis Agreementon climate change, with scientists warning that exceeding it for prolonged periods wouldsharply increase the risks of extreme weather, ecosystem collapse, food insecurity and displacement.
Climate goals still attainable
Such temporary breaches do not mean the Paris Agreements long-term climate goals are unattainable since the accord refers to warming sustained over decades rather than individual years.
Still, theforecasts underscore the accelerating pace of global warming and the increasing frequency of extreme heat events.
Annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range between 1.3C and 1.9C above the 1850-1900 average.
The report said there is also a 75 per cent chance that the average warming across the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5C.
There is an El Nio predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year, said Leon Hermanson, the reports lead author.
WMO/Karolin Eichier
Melting of Arctic ice sheets, like those in Greenland (pictured) is accelerating as global temperatures rise.
Arctic warming accelerates
Projections that theArctic will continue heating far faster than the rest of the planet are also ringing alarm bells.
Temperatures across the region during the next five northern hemisphere winters are forecast to average 2.8C above the 1991-2020 baseline more than three-and-a-half times the projected global average increase over the same period.
Scientists also predicted continued declines in Arctic sea ice, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. Sea ice loss matters because it accelerates warming by reducing the Arctics ability to reflect sunlight, while also disrupting ecosystems, weather patterns and livelihoods in polar regions.
Shifting rainfall patterns
Thereportpointed to widening shifts in global rainfall patterns consistent with a warming climate.
Higher-than-average rainfall is expected in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia between 2026 and 2030, while drier conditions are forecast for the Amazon region and parts of the subtropics.
Wetter conditions are also likely at higher northern latitudes during upcoming winter seasons.
The forecasts are intended to help governments, regional climate centres and national weather agencies plan for risks that are no longer distant projections, but increasingly part of the worlds near-term climate outlook.
The report was produced by the UK Met Office as theWMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction.
